アイオワショック ヒラリー・クリントン11の敗因
何がヒラリーに起ったのか?民主党最有力候補クリントンの急転直下
オバマ支援の波は、もはや選挙運動ではなく時代を動かす社会運動に
米国時間 2008年1月7日 | ハワード・ファインマン/MSNBC |『米流時評』ysbee 訳
ニューハンプシャー州マンチェスター発 |マンチェスターのメインストリート、エルム通りには今朝もかなりな人数の若者が歩道に列をなして、通りを行き交う車に選挙運動のプラカードを掲げて候補者への投票を呼びかけていた。これら全ての若者たち、全てのプラカードが、ただひとりの候補者のためなのである。その候補者は、バラク・オバマ上院議員。
こんな質問は多分時期尚早だとは思うが、ともかくこう問いかけずにはいられない。「本命だったはずのヒラリー・ロッダム・クリントン上院議員に、一体全体何が起ったというんだろう?」
What the Heck Happened to Hillary?
President following up Annapolis peace conference with Mideast tour
JANUARY 7, 2008 | Howard Fineman / MSNBC political analyst | Translation by ysbee
MANCHESTER, N.H. — On Elm Street this morning, there were scores of young people lining the sidewalks waving signs at passing motorists. All the kids and all the signs were for one candidate: Sen. Barack Obama. Maybe it’s too early to ask, but I am going to anyway... What the heck happened to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton?
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JANUARY 7, 2008 | 米 流 時 評 | ブログ雑誌『 楽園通信』デイリー版
N B C / M S N B C | A N A L Y S I S
アイオワコーカス分析「ヒラリー・クリントン11の敗因」前編
米国時間 2008年1月7日午後12時20分 | ハワード・ファインマン/MSNBC | 『米流時評』ysbee 訳
Dramatic, potentially irreversible free fall
Nearly a month ago in this column I wrote that Hillary’s campaign was “teetering on the brink.” Still, I didn’t think the free fall would be this dramatic and potentially irreversible. Maybe she can pull it out, but I tend to doubt it at this point. The saving, cautionary analogy is the near-death campaign of Walter Mondale, who survived Gary Hart’s charge in 1984.
劇的な敗北は致命傷か?
翻訳中
Hillary's big 'ME'ism
But politics doesn’t work the same way it did in those days. The unions who saved Mondale have far less clout; the internet has and will give Obama far more resources than Hillary; and Hart — a praiseworthy figure (one of the brightest strategic minds the Democrats have ever had) — wasn’t exactly a user-friendly campaigner. He certainly was no Obama. Also, the national media of the day turned on Hart; they are unlikely to do the same to Obama.
Much of Hillary’s travail is her fault, but some of it is just bad luck and bad timing — not to mention the presence of two skilled foes in Obama and former Sen. John Edwards.
Here is my short list of reasons for her travails:
大いなるエゴで嫌われたヒラリー
翻訳中
1. Hiring the topmost insiders
Hillary underestimated the hunger for change outside the Beltway. Nothing proved that more than the professionals she chose to run her campaign. They were brilliant, but had grown wealthy in their work and perhaps had lost a fingertip feel for the urgency and everyday fear that grips most of middle-class America these days.
ワシントントップのインサイダーを採用
翻訳中
2. Running on experience
The fact is, she doesn’t really have that much experience that is truly hands-on as an official. It was too easy for her opponents to question its validity.
ふりかざすほどの経験の実績なし
翻訳中
3. Ignoring Obama
In some ways, Obama isn’t quite the outsider and systematic change agent that he claims to be. Yes he is an African-American who now calls the South Side of Chicago home — and that will always make him an outsider to some extent. In many other ways, however, he is just a new wave of what Bill and Hillary were years ago — an on-the-make, Ivy League-educated, Democratic lawyer eager to seize power in Washington. If Hillary was going to say that, she needed to have done it months ago. She did not.
オバマの実力と実績を無視
翻訳中
4. Waiting too long to get specific
The Clintonistas held a conference call yesterday to point out some relevant things: that Obama’s New Hampshire co-chair was a drug-company lobbyist; that the senator had vehemently opposed the Iraq war but then voted repeatedly to fund it; that he had said he wanted to scrap the Patriot Act and start over, but then voted for it. As I listened to the conference call, I couldn’t for the life of me understand why the Clinton folks didn’t highlight these and other items much earlier. By the time they did so, it was too late. You can’t do things by half in politics; if you are going to go after an opponent you have to do it with gusto.
中途半端な攻撃態勢
翻訳中
5. Dealing with an antagonistic media
Hillary and her inner circle come by their loathing of the media honestly, I suppose. After all, she has spent much of her career waiting for journalistic shoes to drop. But that is no reason to have adopted a distant, hermetically-sealed media strategy for the campaign. It was counterproductively control-freakish. She knew she was going to be treated poorly by the national media — and in many ways she has been — but the answer was not to make that a self-fulfilling prophesy. As others have said many times, she can be utterly charming and convincing in small groups. Why didn’t she at least try a charm offensive at some point?
攻撃的メディアの対処法
翻訳中
6. The Iran vote
Whoever advised Hillary to try to burnish her commander-in-chief credentials by voting to declare the Iranian Army a terrorist organization did her a deep disservice. It cost her dearly, by giving Obama a way to outflank her despite his votes for funding the war in Iraq. The fact that Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd voted against it made her vote all the more vivid, and damaging.
イランに対するタカ派的方針
翻訳中
【米国時間 2008年1月7日 『米流時評』ysbee 訳】
»»「アイオワカルテ 続ヒラリー・クリントン11の敗因」へ続く
記事リンク http://beiryu2.exblog.jp/6933625
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1/14 「ドリームボーイ」バラク・オバマ*(予定)
1/12 米流時評「米大統領選の先読み・共和党編」
1/11 米流時評「米大統領選の先読み・民主党編」
1/10 「続・帝国の逆襲」ヒラリー7つの勝因
1/09 「クリントン帝国の逆襲」ヒラリーの勝因分析
1/08 ニューハンプシャー予備選結果マケインとクリントンの勝利
1/07 「アイオワカルテ」続ヒラリー・クリントン11の敗因
1/07 「アイオワショック」ヒラリー・クリントン11の敗因
1/06 米流時評「墓穴を掘ったヒラリー」意地悪婆から泣き婆へ
1/05 米流時評「バラク・オバマはケネディの再来か」*
1/04 米大統領選アイオワ州共和党指名はハッカビー
1/03 オバマ予備選で歴史的勝利!次点エドワーズ、クリントン3位
07/08/09 オバマの問題発言「パキスタン派兵」とイラク戦争批判*
07/04/28 堕ちた偶像アメリカの復権に賭ける民主党大統領選候補*
06/10/28 バラク・オバマ フィーバー/2008年大統領選のスーパースター*
2006年版の拙ブログ『楽園通信』で紹介したオバマの著書2冊 自伝の『Dreams from My Father』と、政治家としての信念と米国と世界が歩むべき道を説いたベストセラー『The Audacity of Hope』今や若者のバイブル。
バラク・オバマに関してもっと知りたいと思われる方は、リストの「*印」のついた記事をご一読ください。
||| 『米流時評』 特集シリーズ |||
次世代冷戦時代 | グローバルウォー | イラク戦争 | テロとスパイ陰謀
アルカイダ2.0 核のテロ | パキスタン戒厳令の季節 | アフガン・タリバンの復活
中東のパワーラビリンス | プーチンのロシア | ユーラシアの回廊 | ダイハード中国
2008年米大統領選 | ブッシュと米国政治 | サルコジのフランス | トンデモ北朝鮮
ビルマの赤い川革命 | 欧米の見る日本 | 世界不思議探検 | グローバルビジネス
by ysbee-2
| 2008-01-07 12:48
| 2008年米国大統領選